Before the vote: the baseline
Preliminary report, published before any 2026 vote is counted. It answers the questions in What we will report (how every figure is made: Methods) using the latest completed elections (2024, with 2020 for the change), so the starting point every 2026 finding is compared with is fixed in public first. It contains no 2026 results and no predictions. Every sentence is written by formula from the figures, and every measure is reported, whatever it shows.
Margins are the Democratic share minus the Republican share of all votes cast, in points. Each place counts once in averages. Census estimates rated unreliable are left out of correlations and averages. These figures describe places, not how any person or group voted, and a relationship between two measures does not show that one causes the other.
Download this article as a PDF Free to share and reuse with credit (CC BY 4.0).
Before the 2026 midterms: how America voted last time, and what its places are like
On November 3, 2026, Americans elect the House, 35 senators and 36 governors. To understand those results when they come in, it helps to know exactly where things stood before. This article sets out how every state, county and district voted in 2024, how that compared with 2020, and how voting lined up with what places are like: their incomes, ages, education, race and ethnicity, work, housing and more. It was published before any 2026 vote was counted. It makes no predictions and calls no races; every number comes from an official public source, and every sentence is written the same way for every party and place.
Why this matters
Results are easier to understand against a fixed starting point. If a county moves 5 points, is that large? Compared with what? This report answers those questions in advance: it records how every place voted and what each place is like, so that on and after election night anyone can see what changed, where, and how much, without relying on someone else's summary. It is also a record: because it was published before any 2026 vote was counted, no one can fit it to the results after the fact, including us.
It is meant for journalists checking a claim, students and researchers who need clean, sourced figures, and anyone curious about their own county or district. Everything is free to use with credit.
First, how to read the numbers
- Margin. The Democratic candidate's share of the vote minus the Republican candidate's, in percentage points. "Rep. +20" means the Republican candidate won by 20 points; "Dem. +5" means the Democratic candidate won by 5.
- Change in margin. How far a place's margin moved between two elections, toward one party or the other. A county can move toward a party and still be won by the other.
- Pattern (r). A number from -1 to 1 showing how closely two things rise and fall together across many places. Near 0: no pattern. Around 0.3: weak. Around 0.4: clear. 0.5 or more: strong. Positive here means places higher on a measure had margins further toward the Democratic candidate; negative, toward the Republican candidate.
- Thirds. To make a pattern concrete, places are sorted by a measure and split into three equal groups; we compare the average margin in the lowest and highest groups.
- Places, not people. Votes are counted by place, so every comparison describes places. If counties with more college graduates voted more one way, that does not tell you how college graduates themselves voted.
- Pattern is not cause. Two things moving together does not mean one causes the other; other differences between places can explain both.
The national picture in 2024
The Republican candidate won the presidential election with 49.8% of the 155,183,617 votes cast, to 48.3% for the Democratic candidate and 1.9% for others. Most counties are small and rural, so the county map looks one-sided: 2,658 of the 3,106 counties with a result had a Republican lead and 447 a Democratic lead. Counties are not people, though; the Democratic candidate's counties included most of the largest cities.1
In the House, Republican candidates won 220 seats and Democratic candidates 215. Across the 425 contested races, Republican candidates received 50.3% of the votes and Democratic candidates 48.0%. 10 races had only one candidate on the ballot.2
How 2024 compared with 2020
From 2020 to 2024 the presidential margin moved toward the Republican candidate in 2,777 counties and toward the Democratic candidate in 317. Most moves were modest: 1,415 counties moved less than 3 points either way, while 542 moved 6 points or more toward the Republican candidate and 7 moved 6 points or more toward the Democratic candidate. Every state and DC moved toward the Republican candidate; the largest moves were in New York (10.3 points), New Jersey (10.0 points) and Florida (9.8 points), and the smallest in Utah (1.2 points), Oklahoma (1.2 points) and Washington (1.0 points).
1The closest states in 2024 were Wisconsin (Rep. +0.9), Michigan (Rep. +1.4), Pennsylvania (Rep. +1.7), Georgia (Rep. +2.2), New Hampshire (Dem. +2.8) and Nevada (Rep. +3.1).
Who turned out
Votes for president equalled 64.4% of citizens of voting age nationally (an approximation from Census estimates). The highest figures were in Minnesota (76.6%), Wisconsin (76.0%) and New Hampshire (74.5%); the lowest in Oklahoma (53.6%), Arkansas (52.7%) and Hawaii (49.0%).
The Census Bureau's own survey of who voted in 2024 shows large differences between groups of citizens: 74.7% of citizens aged 65 and over reported voting, against 47.7% of those aged 18 to 24; 77.2% of those with a bachelor's degree, against 52.5% of high school graduates. By race and ethnicity: White (not Hispanic) 70.5%, Black 59.6%, Asian 57.1%, Hispanic 50.6%. This is who voted, not for whom.3,4
What places are like, and how they voted
We compared the 2024 presidential margin across counties with every measure of what places are like, 23 in all. Here is each one in plain words, grouped by subject. The clearest patterns overall were for adults 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher, white, not Hispanic and asian, not Hispanic.
People and age
- Population. A clear pattern (r = 0.35); inside the 35 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 33. Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 15,146) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +49.6; in the third with the highest (over 46,790) it was Rep. +16.4. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a weak pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.11).
- Citizens of voting age. A clear pattern (r = 0.36); inside the 35 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 33. Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 11,526) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +49.6; in the third with the highest (over 35,624) it was Rep. +16.2. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.34).
- People aged 65 and over. A weak pattern (r = -0.20); inside the 35 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 30. Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Republican candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 18.3%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +24.6; in the third with the highest (over 21.8%) it was Rep. +42.1. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.39).
- People aged 18 to 29. A clear pattern (r = 0.31); inside the 35 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 34. Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 12.7%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +44.6; in the third with the highest (over 14.6%) it was Rep. +20.1. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.36).
- Median age. A weak pattern (r = -0.19). Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Republican candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 39.8) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +24.9; in the third with the highest (over 43.4) it was Rep. +41.6. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a weak pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.30).
Race and ethnicity
- White, not Hispanic. A clear pattern (r = -0.49); inside the 35 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 34. Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Republican candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 69.2%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +18.5; in the third with the highest (over 87.7%) it was Rep. +49.4. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a strong pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.60).
- Black, not Hispanic. A clear pattern (r = 0.42); inside the 35 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 34. Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 2.0%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +37.5; in the third with the highest (over 9.4%) it was Rep. +18.0. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.40).
- Hispanic or Latino (any race). Almost no pattern (r = 0.10); inside the 35 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 26. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 3.6%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +40.9; in the third with the highest (over 9.0%) it was Rep. +29.2. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.31).
- Asian, not Hispanic. A clear pattern (r = 0.46); inside the 35 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 34. Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 0.6%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +46.2; in the third with the highest (over 1.5%) it was Rep. +4.4. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.43).
- American Indian and Alaska Native, not Hispanic. Almost no pattern (r = 0.06); inside the 34 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 19. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 0.1%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +22.6; in the third with the highest (over 0.7%) it was Rep. +32.7. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a weak pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.13).
- Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, not Hispanic. A weak pattern (r = 0.14); inside the 30 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 27. Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 0.0%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +42.1; in the third with the highest (over 0.0%) it was Rep. +11.9. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a weak pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.14).
- Two or more races or another race, not Hispanic. A weak pattern (r = 0.16); inside the 35 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 24. Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 3.4%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +42.9; in the third with the highest (over 4.7%) it was Rep. +25.4. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a weak pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.21).
Education and income
- Adults 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher. A strong pattern (r = 0.56); inside the 35 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 32. Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 19.1%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +46.7; in the third with the highest (over 26.2%) it was Rep. +15.0. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a strong pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.53).
- People below the poverty line. Almost no pattern (r = 0.03); inside the 35 states with 30 or more counties, it points the same way in 18. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 11.3%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +31.1; in the third with the highest (over 16.0%) it was Rep. +35.1. Across House districts with unchanged lines, almost no pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.10).
- Median household income. A clear pattern (r = 0.31). Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under $59,783) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +40.9; in the third with the highest (over $71,724) it was Rep. +23.0. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.31).
- Unemployment rate. A weak pattern (r = 0.19). Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 4.0%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +36.6; in the third with the highest (over 5.4%) it was Rep. +25.2. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.43).
Work and commuting
- Average travel time to work. Almost no pattern (r = 0.03). In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 21.9 min) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +36.5; in the third with the highest (over 26.5 min) it was Rep. +36.3. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.42).
- Workers with a trip to work of 45 minutes or more. Almost no pattern (r = -0.09). In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 11.7%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +30.2; in the third with the highest (over 18.4%) it was Rep. +37.6. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.34).
- Workers commuting by public transit. A clear pattern (r = 0.39). Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 0.0%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +51.1; in the third with the highest (over 0.5%) it was Dem. +7.6. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.44).
- Workers working from home. A clear pattern (r = 0.46). Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 7.5%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +46.6; in the third with the highest (over 11.1%) it was Rep. +16.1. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a strong pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.57).
Housing and internet
- Renter households paying 30%+ of income on rent. A clear pattern (r = 0.37). Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 41.5%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +47.1; in the third with the highest (over 48.7%) it was Rep. +19.3. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.45).
- Owner households paying 30%+ of income on housing. A clear pattern (r = 0.44). Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 17.1%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +47.1; in the third with the highest (over 20.4%) it was Rep. +19.0. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a strong pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.56).
- Households with broadband internet. A weak pattern (r = 0.23). Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 84.7%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +44.7; in the third with the highest (over 89.1%) it was Rep. +19.6. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.37).
All of these figures come from the American Community Survey3 and the county presidential results1; House patterns use the House results2.
Counting people instead of counties
All of the comparisons above count every county once, so a county of a few thousand people weighs as much as one of several million. Counting each resident instead can change the picture, because large and small counties often differ. The biggest differences are for population change, April 2020 to July 2025 (Census estimates) (almost no pattern, r = -0.03, when each county counts once; a clear pattern, r = -0.33, when each resident counts), population change, July 2024 to July 2025 (Census estimates) (almost no pattern, r = -0.00, when each county counts once; a weak pattern, r = -0.23, when each resident counts) and workers with a trip to work of 45 minutes or more (almost no pattern, r = -0.09, when each county counts once; a weak pattern, r = 0.12, when each resident counts).
More recent figures
Most Census figures are averages for 2020 to 2024, so very recent change may not show in them. Unemployment for September 2026 and population change to July 2025 are newer.5,6 Unemployment rate, September 2026 (BLS, preliminary). A weak pattern (r = 0.16). Counties with a higher figure tended to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate. In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 3.3%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +41.1; in the third with the highest (over 4.1%) it was Rep. +28.8. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a clear pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.36). Population change, April 2020 to July 2025 (Census estimates). Almost no pattern (r = -0.03). In the third of counties with the lowest figure (under -0.7%) the average 2024 margin was Rep. +35.5; in the third with the highest (over 2.9%) it was Rep. +36.6. Across House districts with unchanged lines, a weak pattern with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.28).
Campaign money
Candidates' campaign committees reported raising $1,425 million for the 35 Senate races and $2,578 million for the House, through their latest reports (to 2026-10-31). Democratic candidates raised more than Republican candidates in 20 of the 35 Senate races and 237 of 436 House districts with money reported; Republican candidates raised more in 15 Senate races and 199 districts. The Senate races with the most money raised were in Texas ($212 million), Georgia ($138 million), Michigan ($108 million), Ohio ($97 million) and Florida ($81 million). These figures leave out money spent by parties and outside groups, which in some races is larger than the candidates' own.7
A worked example: reading one county
Every county, state and district has a full profile in the interactive study. Here is how to read two of them: the county with the most votes, and the county in the middle of the list by votes cast.
Los Angeles County, California (the most votes cast in 2024). In 2024 its presidential margin was Dem. +32.9, out of 3,728,427 votes; since 2020 it moved 11.2 points toward the Republican candidate. Its median household income is $90,112, higher than in 91% of counties. Its share of adults with a bachelor's degree is 36.0%, higher than in 86% of counties. Its share aged 65 and over is 15.2%, higher than in 12% of counties. Its share below the poverty line is 13.7%, higher than in 52% of counties.
Logan County, Illinois (the middle county by votes cast). In 2024 its presidential margin was Rep. +41.5, out of 12,564 votes; since 2020 it moved 1.7 points toward the Republican candidate. Its median household income is $66,358, higher than in 53% of counties. Its share of adults with a bachelor's degree is 20.9%, higher than in 43% of counties. Its share aged 65 and over is 19.5%, higher than in 45% of counties. Its share below the poverty line is 13.1%, higher than in 48% of counties.
Election night, in plain terms
- Counts arrive in stages. States publish unofficial counts as they go. Some count mail ballots first, others last, so early figures can differ a lot from the final count depending on which kind of vote is counted first.
- Unofficial is not final. Counts keep changing for days or weeks as late ballots, provisional ballots and corrections are added. Each state then certifies its results; that is the final count.
- We do not call races. The interactive study shows counts as published, who is ahead so far, and how much is reported. It never says who has won before the state says so.
- Compare with the baseline. When a county's count settles, set it beside its 2024 margin here to see how far it moved, and in which direction.
Using the interactive study
- Open research.spotbookr.com. The map shows the 2026 ballot, then the count as it comes in.
- Under Show, pick an election: 2026, past presidential and House results, or campaign money.
- Under Compare with, pick a measure of who lives in a place. The places highest (or lowest) on it stay bright; the rest fade, and a line counts how they voted.
- Click any state, county or district for its full profile: its figures beside its state and the country, its neighbours, the places most like it, its ballot and its campaign money.
- Below the map, the chart and the written report compare the two measures across every place, with the same plain wording as this article.
- Download any view as a spreadsheet, or use Cite this to credit it.
What this cannot tell you
- How any person or group voted. Only how places voted.
- Why places voted as they did. A pattern is not a cause.
- Very recent change in full. Most Census figures are 2020 to 2024 averages.
- What will happen. No 2026 results, no predictions, no race calls.
- Everything about money. Party and outside spending are not included.
How we kept it neutral
The questions, methods and wording were fixed and published before the vote (What we will report). Every sentence here and in the other tabs is filled in from the figures by fixed formulas, the same for every party and place, and checked against a list of words we do not use. Every measure is reported, whether it shows a pattern or not. Corrections are listed publicly in the log. How each figure is made is in Methods.
What happens next
On election night, official counts appear in the interactive study as each state publishes them, marked unofficial until certified. Once counts settle, we answer the same questions with the 2026 results, and states switch to certified results as they certify, through December 18.
Questions readers ask
- Does this show how Black, Hispanic or college-educated voters voted?
- No. It shows how places with more or fewer of them voted. Group voting is only estimated by surveys, which we do not use.
- Why compare with 2024, a presidential year, rather than 2022?
- 2024 is the latest election with a result for every county and the most complete picture of each place. Midterm turnout is lower, so expect lower vote totals in 2026.
- Why do some districts have no 2024 House result?
- Nine states redrew their maps for 2026, so 173 districts have new shapes. Their 2024 result belongs to a different area and would mislead.8
- Are the Census figures exact?
- No. They are survey estimates with margins of error; figures too uncertain to rely on are marked and left out of comparisons.
- Can I use these figures?
- Yes, free with credit (Creative Commons Attribution 4.0). Every table is downloadable, and How to cite is under Cite this in the interactive study.
- Who decides what goes in?
- The questions were fixed before the vote and every measure is reported whether or not it shows a pattern, so nothing is chosen for what it shows.
- What if I find an error?
- Write to support@spotbookr.com. Corrections are listed with their dates in the public log.
State by state
Every state's 2024 presidential margin, its move since 2020, turnout, and whether it elects a senator in 2026.1,3
| State | 2024 margin | Move since 2020 | Turnout 2024 | Senate race 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Rep. +30.5 | 5.1 toward Rep. | 58.9% | Yes |
| Alaska | Rep. +13.1 | 3.0 toward Rep. | 62.8% | Yes |
| Arizona | Rep. +5.6 | 5.9 toward Rep. | 63.9% | No |
| Arkansas | Rep. +30.6 | 3.0 toward Rep. | 52.7% | Yes |
| California | Dem. +20.2 | 9.0 toward Rep. | 60.7% | No |
| Colorado | Dem. +11.0 | 2.5 toward Rep. | 73.3% | Yes |
| Connecticut | Dem. +14.5 | 5.6 toward Rep. | 66.0% | No |
| Delaware | Dem. +14.7 | 4.3 toward Rep. | 67.0% | Yes |
| District of Columbia | Dem. +83.8 | 2.9 toward Rep. | 64.3% | No |
| Florida | Rep. +13.1 | 9.8 toward Rep. | 67.3% | Yes |
| Georgia | Rep. +2.2 | 2.4 toward Rep. | 67.0% | Yes |
| Hawaii | Dem. +23.1 | 6.3 toward Rep. | 49.0% | No |
| Idaho | Rep. +36.5 | 5.7 toward Rep. | 64.1% | Yes |
| Illinois | Dem. +10.9 | 6.0 toward Rep. | 61.9% | Yes |
| Indiana | Rep. +19.0 | 3.0 toward Rep. | 58.4% | No |
| Iowa | Rep. +13.2 | 4.8 toward Rep. | 69.8% | Yes |
| Kansas | Rep. +16.2 | 1.6 toward Rep. | 62.2% | Yes |
| Kentucky | Rep. +30.6 | 4.7 toward Rep. | 61.0% | Yes |
| Louisiana | Rep. +22.0 | 3.4 toward Rep. | 58.8% | Yes |
| Maine | Dem. +6.5 | 2.0 toward Rep. | 74.0% | Yes |
| Maryland | Dem. +28.5 | 4.7 toward Rep. | 68.8% | No |
| Massachusetts | Dem. +25.2 | 8.0 toward Rep. | 67.4% | Yes |
| Michigan | Rep. +1.4 | 4.2 toward Rep. | 74.0% | Yes |
| Minnesota | Dem. +4.2 | 2.9 toward Rep. | 76.6% | Yes |
| Mississippi | Rep. +22.9 | 6.4 toward Rep. | 55.3% | Yes |
| Missouri | Rep. +18.4 | 3.0 toward Rep. | 63.9% | No |
| Montana | Rep. +19.9 | 3.6 toward Rep. | 69.2% | Yes |
| Nebraska | Rep. +20.5 | 1.4 toward Rep. | 67.0% | Yes |
| Nevada | Rep. +3.1 | 5.5 toward Rep. | 66.8% | No |
| New Hampshire | Dem. +2.8 | 4.6 toward Rep. | 74.5% | Yes |
| New Jersey | Dem. +5.9 | 10.0 toward Rep. | 66.4% | Yes |
| New Mexico | Dem. +6.0 | 4.8 toward Rep. | 59.4% | Yes |
| New York | Dem. +12.6 | 10.3 toward Rep. | 58.6% | No |
| North Carolina | Rep. +3.3 | 2.0 toward Rep. | 72.2% | Yes |
| North Dakota | Rep. +36.5 | 3.2 toward Rep. | 63.3% | No |
| Ohio | Rep. +11.2 | 3.1 toward Rep. | 64.4% | Yes |
| Oklahoma | Rep. +34.3 | 1.2 toward Rep. | 53.6% | Yes |
| Oregon | Dem. +14.3 | 1.8 toward Rep. | 69.9% | Yes |
| Pennsylvania | Rep. +1.7 | 2.9 toward Rep. | 70.6% | No |
| Rhode Island | Dem. +13.5 | 7.3 toward Rep. | 61.9% | Yes |
| South Carolina | Rep. +17.8 | 6.1 toward Rep. | 63.6% | Yes |
| South Dakota | Rep. +29.2 | 3.0 toward Rep. | 64.0% | Yes |
| Tennessee | Rep. +29.7 | 6.5 toward Rep. | 58.1% | Yes |
| Texas | Rep. +13.6 | 8.0 toward Rep. | 57.3% | Yes |
| Utah | Rep. +21.6 | 1.2 toward Rep. | 65.0% | No |
| Vermont | Dem. +31.5 | 3.6 toward Rep. | 70.8% | No |
| Virginia | Dem. +5.8 | 4.3 toward Rep. | 70.3% | Yes |
| Washington | Dem. +18.2 | 1.0 toward Rep. | 70.3% | No |
| West Virginia | Rep. +41.9 | 3.0 toward Rep. | 54.1% | Yes |
| Wisconsin | Rep. +0.9 | 1.6 toward Rep. | 76.0% | No |
| Wyoming | Rep. +45.8 | 2.7 toward Rep. | 61.1% | Yes |
Sources
- MIT Election Data and Science Lab, County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2024 (CC0). https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ
- MIT Election Data and Science Lab, U.S. House 1976-2024 and U.S. Senate 1976-2024 (CC0). https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/IG0UN2
- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs
- U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2024 (Current Population Survey). https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-590.html
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, counties, August 2025 to September 2026. https://www.bls.gov/lau/
- U.S. Census Bureau, population estimates, Vintage 2025. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html
- Federal Election Commission, 2025-2026 candidate summary file. https://www.fec.gov/data/browse-data/?tab=bulk-data
- U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line 2026 congressional districts and cartographic boundary files. https://www.census.gov/geographies/mapping-files.html
Glossary
- ACS: the Census Bureau's American Community Survey, a yearly survey of millions of households.
- Citizens of voting age: U.S. citizens 18 and over, the Census estimate used for turnout.
- Unchanged lines: House districts whose boundaries are the same as in 2024 (263 of 435).
- FEC: the Federal Election Commission, where federal candidates report money raised and spent.
- Unofficial / certified: counts before and after a state formally confirms its results.
A. The last results
In the 2024 presidential election the Democratic candidate received 48.3% and the Republican candidate 49.8% of the 155,183,617 votes cast nationally. Of 3,106 counties with a result, 447 had a Democratic lead and 2,658 a Republican lead.
In the 2024 U.S. House elections, 220 seats were won by Republican candidates and 215 by Democratic candidates. Across the 425 contested races, Republican candidates received 50.3% of the votes, Democratic candidates 48.0% and others 1.7%; 10 races had a single candidate on the ballot and are counted separately (FL-20, KY-5, MS-3, OK-3, PA-3, TX-1, TX-9, TX-11, TX-13, TX-20).
President 2024: who led in each county
Each county is coloured by the party whose candidate led; the darker the colour, the larger the lead.
U.S. House 2024: who won each district (striped: new lines for 2026, so the 2024 result belongs to a different shape)
Each district is coloured by the party whose candidate won; the darker the colour, the larger the margin.
B. Change from 2020 to 2024
From the 2020 to the 2024 presidential election, the margin moved toward the Republican candidate in 2,777 of 3,106 counties and toward the Democratic candidate in 317, and was unchanged in 12. By state, it moved toward the Republican candidate in 51 states (including DC) and toward the Democratic candidate in 0.
How each county's presidential margin moved, 2020 to 2024
Each county is coloured by the direction its margin moved from 2020 to 2024; the darker the colour, the larger the move.
| Size of the move | Counties, toward the Democratic candidate | Counties, toward the Republican candidate |
|---|---|---|
| under 1 point | 149 | 284 |
| 1 to 3 | 125 | 857 |
| 3 to 6 | 36 | 1,094 |
| 6 to 10 | 6 | 440 |
| 10 points and over | 1 | 102 |
C. Turnout in 2024
Votes cast for president were equal to 64.4% of citizens of voting age nationally (Census estimate for 2020 to 2024). By state this ranged from 49.0% in Hawaii to 76.6% in Minnesota. This is an approximation: the Census figure is a five-year survey estimate, not the number of eligible voters on Election Day. The Census Bureau's own survey of who voted in 2024, by group, is on each state's page of the case study.
Turnout in 2024: votes for president per citizen of voting age, by state
Each state is shaded by votes cast for president per citizen of voting age; darker means a higher share. This is not a party measure.
Turnout by state (51)
| State | Votes for president | Citizens of voting age | Votes ÷ citizens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 2,264,972 | 3,845,698 | 58.9% |
| Alaska | 338,177 | 538,816 | 62.8% |
| Arizona | 3,400,986 | 5,324,116 | 63.9% |
| Arkansas | 1,182,676 | 2,245,940 | 52.7% |
| California | 15,862,678 | 26,132,801 | 60.7% |
| Colorado | 3,190,873 | 4,355,175 | 73.3% |
| Connecticut | 1,759,010 | 2,663,361 | 66.0% |
| Delaware | 511,697 | 764,112 | 67.0% |
| District of Columbia | 325,879 | 506,635 | 64.3% |
| Florida | 10,893,752 | 16,182,911 | 67.3% |
| Georgia | 5,250,047 | 7,834,503 | 67.0% |
| Hawaii | 516,701 | 1,054,555 | 49.0% |
| Idaho | 905,057 | 1,411,147 | 64.1% |
| Illinois | 5,633,310 | 9,094,987 | 61.9% |
| Indiana | 2,936,677 | 5,030,939 | 58.4% |
| Iowa | 1,663,506 | 2,381,746 | 69.8% |
| Kansas | 1,327,591 | 2,134,490 | 62.2% |
| Kentucky | 2,074,530 | 3,401,788 | 61.0% |
| Louisiana | 2,006,975 | 3,413,946 | 58.8% |
| Maine | 824,806 | 1,114,202 | 74.0% |
| Maryland | 3,038,334 | 4,418,302 | 68.8% |
| Massachusetts | 3,473,668 | 5,155,254 | 67.4% |
| Michigan | 5,664,186 | 7,653,712 | 74.0% |
| Minnesota | 3,253,920 | 4,247,053 | 76.6% |
| Mississippi | 1,228,008 | 2,221,758 | 55.3% |
| Missouri | 2,995,327 | 4,685,986 | 63.9% |
| Montana | 602,963 | 871,202 | 69.2% |
| Nebraska | 947,159 | 1,413,883 | 67.0% |
| Nevada | 1,484,840 | 2,223,534 | 66.8% |
| New Hampshire | 826,189 | 1,109,601 | 74.5% |
| New Jersey | 4,272,725 | 6,433,714 | 66.4% |
| New Mexico | 923,362 | 1,553,240 | 59.4% |
| New York | 8,262,495 | 14,104,696 | 58.6% |
| North Carolina | 5,699,141 | 7,898,160 | 72.2% |
| North Dakota | 368,155 | 581,737 | 63.3% |
| Ohio | 5,767,788 | 8,956,209 | 64.4% |
| Oklahoma | 1,566,173 | 2,923,607 | 53.6% |
| Oregon | 2,244,493 | 3,211,655 | 69.9% |
| Pennsylvania | 7,034,206 | 9,961,813 | 70.6% |
| Rhode Island | 511,816 | 826,622 | 61.9% |
| South Carolina | 2,548,140 | 4,009,584 | 63.6% |
| South Dakota | 428,922 | 669,731 | 64.0% |
| Tennessee | 3,063,942 | 5,275,349 | 58.1% |
| Texas | 11,388,674 | 19,865,981 | 57.3% |
| Utah | 1,488,494 | 2,291,432 | 65.0% |
| Vermont | 369,422 | 521,798 | 70.8% |
| Virginia | 4,482,576 | 6,378,480 | 70.3% |
| Washington | 3,924,243 | 5,583,137 | 70.3% |
| West Virginia | 762,390 | 1,409,277 | 54.1% |
| Wisconsin | 3,422,918 | 4,505,016 | 76.0% |
| Wyoming | 269,048 | 440,290 | 61.1% |
D. What places are like, and how they voted
Every Census measure in the case study, 23 in all, grouped by subject, each with the same text and the same charts. A positive r means places higher on the measure tend to have margins further toward the Democratic candidate; a negative r, further toward the Republican candidate. Strength words: under 0.1 almost none, 0.1 to 0.3 weak, 0.3 to 0.5 moderate, 0.5 and over strong. The 13 measures of who lives in a place also get a map: the counties in the highest fifth keep their 2024 vote colours and the rest fade. In the charts, each dot is a county, coloured by its 2024 vote; the line is the straight-line trend.
Summary table: who lives here
| Measure | r with 2024 margin (counties) | Lowest third: avg margin | Highest third: avg margin | r with change 2020-24 | r with 2024 House margin (districts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 0.35 | Rep. +49.6 | Rep. +16.4 | -0.17 | -0.11 |
| Citizens of voting age | 0.36 | Rep. +49.6 | Rep. +16.2 | -0.16 | -0.34 |
| People aged 65 and over | -0.20 | Rep. +24.6 | Rep. +42.1 | 0.16 | -0.39 |
| People aged 18 to 29 | 0.31 | Rep. +44.6 | Rep. +20.1 | -0.14 | 0.36 |
| White, not Hispanic | -0.49 | Rep. +18.5 | Rep. +49.4 | 0.45 | -0.60 |
| Black, not Hispanic | 0.42 | Rep. +37.5 | Rep. +18.0 | -0.24 | 0.40 |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 0.10 | Rep. +40.9 | Rep. +29.2 | -0.42 | 0.31 |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 0.46 | Rep. +46.2 | Rep. +4.4 | -0.15 | 0.43 |
| American Indian and Alaska Native, not Hispanic | 0.06 | Rep. +22.6 | Rep. +32.7 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
| Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, not Hispanic | 0.14 | Rep. +42.1 | Rep. +11.9 | -0.07 | 0.14 |
| Two or more races or another race, not Hispanic | 0.16 | Rep. +42.9 | Rep. +25.4 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher | 0.56 | Rep. +46.7 | Rep. +15.0 | 0.16 | 0.53 |
| People below the poverty line | 0.03 | Rep. +31.1 | Rep. +35.1 | -0.33 | 0.10 |
Summary table: other figures about the place
| Measure | r with 2024 margin (counties) | Lowest third: avg margin | Highest third: avg margin | r with change 2020-24 | r with 2024 House margin (districts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 0.19 | Rep. +36.6 | Rep. +25.2 | -0.27 | 0.43 |
| Workers with a trip to work of 45 minutes or more | -0.09 | Rep. +30.2 | Rep. +37.6 | -0.17 | 0.34 |
| Workers commuting by public transit | 0.39 | Rep. +51.1 | Dem. +7.6 | -0.25 | 0.44 |
| Workers working from home | 0.46 | Rep. +46.6 | Rep. +16.1 | 0.15 | 0.57 |
| Households with broadband internet | 0.23 | Rep. +44.7 | Rep. +19.6 | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| Renter households paying 30%+ of income on rent | 0.37 | Rep. +47.1 | Rep. +19.3 | -0.17 | 0.45 |
| Owner households paying 30%+ of income on housing | 0.44 | Rep. +47.1 | Rep. +19.0 | -0.23 | 0.56 |
| Median household income | 0.31 | Rep. +40.9 | Rep. +23.0 | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| Median age | -0.19 | Rep. +24.9 | Rep. +41.6 | 0.17 | -0.30 |
| Average travel time to work | 0.03 | Rep. +36.5 | Rep. +36.3 | -0.19 | 0.42 |
D. People and age
Population
Across 3,104 counties there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.35): the average margin is Rep. +49.6 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 15,146) and Rep. +16.4 in the third with the highest (over 46,790). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = -0.17). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a weak relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.11).
Where the population is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The population compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The population compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | 0.10 |
| Arkansas | 75 | 0.39 |
| California | 58 | 0.26 |
| Colorado | 64 | 0.36 |
| Florida | 67 | 0.59 |
| Georgia | 159 | 0.45 |
| Idaho | 44 | 0.33 |
| Illinois | 102 | 0.48 |
| Indiana | 92 | 0.75 |
| Iowa | 99 | 0.63 |
| Kansas | 105 | 0.59 |
| Kentucky | 120 | 0.62 |
| Louisiana | 64 | 0.35 |
| Michigan | 83 | 0.55 |
| Minnesota | 87 | 0.63 |
| Mississippi | 82 | -0.05 |
| Missouri | 115 | 0.71 |
| Montana | 56 | 0.51 |
| Nebraska | 93 | 0.64 |
| New Mexico | 33 | 0.29 |
| New York | 62 | 0.61 |
| North Carolina | 100 | 0.41 |
| North Dakota | 53 | 0.29 |
| Ohio | 88 | 0.78 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | 0.71 |
| Oregon | 36 | 0.67 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 0.82 |
| South Carolina | 46 | -0.07 |
| South Dakota | 65 | 0.25 |
| Tennessee | 95 | 0.80 |
| Texas | 254 | 0.49 |
| Virginia | 133 | 0.34 |
| Washington | 39 | 0.49 |
| West Virginia | 55 | 0.73 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 0.50 |
Citizens of voting age
Across 3,104 counties there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.36): the average margin is Rep. +49.6 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 11,526) and Rep. +16.2 in the third with the highest (over 35,624). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = -0.16). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.34).
Where the number of citizens of voting age is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The number of citizens of voting age compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The number of citizens of voting age compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | 0.10 |
| Arkansas | 75 | 0.39 |
| California | 58 | 0.27 |
| Colorado | 64 | 0.37 |
| Florida | 67 | 0.61 |
| Georgia | 159 | 0.46 |
| Idaho | 44 | 0.33 |
| Illinois | 102 | 0.48 |
| Indiana | 92 | 0.77 |
| Iowa | 99 | 0.65 |
| Kansas | 105 | 0.59 |
| Kentucky | 120 | 0.62 |
| Louisiana | 64 | 0.36 |
| Michigan | 83 | 0.56 |
| Minnesota | 87 | 0.63 |
| Mississippi | 82 | -0.05 |
| Missouri | 115 | 0.72 |
| Montana | 56 | 0.51 |
| Nebraska | 93 | 0.64 |
| New Mexico | 33 | 0.31 |
| New York | 62 | 0.62 |
| North Carolina | 100 | 0.41 |
| North Dakota | 53 | 0.29 |
| Ohio | 88 | 0.79 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | 0.73 |
| Oregon | 36 | 0.67 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 0.81 |
| South Carolina | 46 | -0.07 |
| South Dakota | 65 | 0.25 |
| Tennessee | 95 | 0.80 |
| Texas | 254 | 0.50 |
| Virginia | 133 | 0.35 |
| Washington | 39 | 0.50 |
| West Virginia | 55 | 0.73 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 0.50 |
People aged 65 and over
Across 3,104 counties there is a weak relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = -0.20): the average margin is Rep. +24.6 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 18.3%) and Rep. +42.1 in the third with the highest (over 21.8%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = 0.16). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.39).
Where the share aged 65 and over is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The share aged 65 and over compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The share aged 65 and over compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | 0.03 |
| Arkansas | 75 | -0.29 |
| California | 58 | -0.19 |
| Colorado | 64 | -0.20 |
| Florida | 67 | -0.04 |
| Georgia | 159 | -0.13 |
| Idaho | 44 | -0.03 |
| Illinois | 102 | -0.50 |
| Indiana | 92 | -0.50 |
| Iowa | 99 | -0.48 |
| Kansas | 105 | -0.58 |
| Kentucky | 120 | -0.37 |
| Louisiana | 64 | 0.07 |
| Michigan | 83 | -0.34 |
| Minnesota | 87 | -0.26 |
| Mississippi | 82 | -0.04 |
| Missouri | 115 | -0.45 |
| Montana | 56 | -0.57 |
| Nebraska | 93 | -0.66 |
| New Mexico | 33 | 0.07 |
| New York | 62 | -0.35 |
| North Carolina | 100 | -0.28 |
| North Dakota | 53 | -0.49 |
| Ohio | 88 | -0.23 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | -0.52 |
| Oregon | 36 | -0.40 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | -0.65 |
| South Carolina | 46 | 0.02 |
| South Dakota | 65 | -0.68 |
| Tennessee | 95 | -0.45 |
| Texas | 254 | -0.38 |
| Virginia | 133 | -0.53 |
| Washington | 39 | 0.08 |
| West Virginia | 55 | -0.45 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | -0.39 |
People aged 18 to 29
Across 3,067 counties there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.31): the average margin is Rep. +44.6 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 12.7%) and Rep. +20.1 in the third with the highest (over 14.6%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = -0.14). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.36).
Where the share aged 18 to 29 is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The share aged 18 to 29 compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The share aged 18 to 29 compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | 0.42 |
| Arkansas | 75 | 0.31 |
| California | 58 | 0.27 |
| Colorado | 64 | 0.24 |
| Florida | 67 | 0.35 |
| Georgia | 159 | 0.20 |
| Idaho | 44 | 0.03 |
| Illinois | 102 | 0.49 |
| Indiana | 92 | 0.57 |
| Iowa | 99 | 0.55 |
| Kansas | 105 | 0.61 |
| Kentucky | 120 | 0.48 |
| Louisiana | 64 | 0.23 |
| Michigan | 83 | 0.51 |
| Minnesota | 87 | 0.39 |
| Mississippi | 82 | 0.24 |
| Missouri | 115 | 0.43 |
| Montana | 56 | 0.64 |
| Nebraska | 93 | 0.48 |
| New Mexico | 33 | -0.29 |
| New York | 62 | 0.40 |
| North Carolina | 100 | 0.37 |
| North Dakota | 53 | 0.45 |
| Ohio | 88 | 0.43 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | 0.55 |
| Oregon | 36 | 0.44 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 0.37 |
| South Carolina | 46 | 0.14 |
| South Dakota | 65 | 0.54 |
| Tennessee | 95 | 0.44 |
| Texas | 254 | 0.37 |
| Virginia | 133 | 0.44 |
| Washington | 39 | 0.10 |
| West Virginia | 55 | 0.59 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 0.48 |
Median age
Across 3,105 counties there is a weak relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = -0.19): the average margin is Rep. +24.9 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 39.8) and Rep. +41.6 in the third with the highest (over 43.4). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = 0.17). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a weak relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.30).
The median age compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The median age compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
D. Race and ethnicity
White, not Hispanic
Across 3,104 counties there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = -0.49): the average margin is Rep. +18.5 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 69.2%) and Rep. +49.4 in the third with the highest (over 87.7%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a moderate relationship (r = 0.45). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a strong relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.60).
Where the White (not Hispanic) share is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The White (not Hispanic) share compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The White (not Hispanic) share compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | -0.97 |
| Arkansas | 75 | -0.87 |
| California | 58 | -0.27 |
| Colorado | 64 | -0.10 |
| Florida | 67 | -0.63 |
| Georgia | 159 | -0.88 |
| Idaho | 44 | -0.08 |
| Illinois | 102 | -0.81 |
| Indiana | 92 | -0.77 |
| Iowa | 99 | -0.37 |
| Kansas | 105 | -0.34 |
| Kentucky | 120 | -0.71 |
| Louisiana | 64 | -0.94 |
| Michigan | 83 | -0.63 |
| Minnesota | 87 | -0.45 |
| Mississippi | 82 | -0.98 |
| Missouri | 115 | -0.72 |
| Montana | 56 | -0.55 |
| Nebraska | 93 | -0.57 |
| New Mexico | 33 | -0.35 |
| New York | 62 | -0.67 |
| North Carolina | 100 | -0.67 |
| North Dakota | 53 | -0.73 |
| Ohio | 88 | -0.87 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | -0.40 |
| Oregon | 36 | -0.31 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | -0.85 |
| South Carolina | 46 | -0.89 |
| South Dakota | 65 | -0.73 |
| Tennessee | 95 | -0.84 |
| Texas | 254 | -0.64 |
| Virginia | 133 | -0.79 |
| Washington | 39 | 0.02 |
| West Virginia | 55 | -0.55 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | -0.66 |
Black, not Hispanic
Across 2,341 counties there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.42): the average margin is Rep. +37.5 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 2.0%) and Rep. +18.0 in the third with the highest (over 9.4%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = -0.24). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.40).
Where the Black (not Hispanic) share is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The Black (not Hispanic) share compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The Black (not Hispanic) share compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | 0.96 |
| Arkansas | 75 | 0.81 |
| California | 58 | 0.14 |
| Colorado | 64 | 0.15 |
| Florida | 67 | 0.46 |
| Georgia | 159 | 0.82 |
| Idaho | 44 | 0.10 |
| Illinois | 102 | 0.40 |
| Indiana | 92 | 0.75 |
| Iowa | 99 | 0.69 |
| Kansas | 105 | 0.63 |
| Kentucky | 120 | 0.53 |
| Louisiana | 64 | 0.87 |
| Michigan | 83 | 0.61 |
| Minnesota | 87 | 0.68 |
| Mississippi | 82 | 0.97 |
| Missouri | 115 | 0.71 |
| Montana | 56 | 0.41 |
| Nebraska | 93 | 0.72 |
| New Mexico | 33 | -0.42 |
| New York | 62 | 0.68 |
| North Carolina | 100 | 0.62 |
| North Dakota | 53 | 0.52 |
| Ohio | 88 | 0.78 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | 0.52 |
| Oregon | 36 | 0.65 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 0.73 |
| South Carolina | 46 | 0.86 |
| South Dakota | 65 | 0.29 |
| Tennessee | 95 | 0.74 |
| Texas | 254 | 0.25 |
| Virginia | 133 | 0.54 |
| Washington | 39 | 0.60 |
| West Virginia | 55 | 0.08 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 0.51 |
Hispanic or Latino (any race)
Across 2,860 counties there is almost no straight-line relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.10): the average margin is Rep. +40.9 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 3.6%) and Rep. +29.2 in the third with the highest (over 9.0%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a moderate relationship (r = -0.42). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.31).
Where the Hispanic or Latino share is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The Hispanic or Latino share compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The Hispanic or Latino share compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | -0.22 |
| Arkansas | 75 | 0.04 |
| California | 58 | -0.02 |
| Colorado | 64 | -0.04 |
| Florida | 67 | 0.37 |
| Georgia | 159 | 0.02 |
| Idaho | 44 | 0.04 |
| Illinois | 102 | 0.67 |
| Indiana | 92 | 0.36 |
| Iowa | 99 | 0.05 |
| Kansas | 105 | 0.09 |
| Kentucky | 120 | 0.58 |
| Louisiana | 64 | 0.03 |
| Michigan | 83 | 0.32 |
| Minnesota | 87 | 0.01 |
| Mississippi | 82 | -0.03 |
| Missouri | 115 | 0.28 |
| Montana | 56 | 0.17 |
| Nebraska | 93 | 0.32 |
| New Mexico | 33 | 0.10 |
| New York | 62 | 0.52 |
| North Carolina | 100 | 0.16 |
| North Dakota | 53 | -0.17 |
| Ohio | 88 | 0.46 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | -0.06 |
| Oregon | 36 | 0.08 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 0.55 |
| South Carolina | 46 | -0.30 |
| South Dakota | 65 | -0.01 |
| Tennessee | 95 | 0.45 |
| Texas | 254 | 0.48 |
| Virginia | 133 | 0.47 |
| Washington | 39 | -0.28 |
| West Virginia | 55 | 0.42 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 0.29 |
Asian, not Hispanic
Across 1,989 counties there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.46): the average margin is Rep. +46.2 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 0.6%) and Rep. +4.4 in the third with the highest (over 1.5%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = -0.15). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.43).
Where the Asian (not Hispanic) share is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The Asian (not Hispanic) share compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The Asian (not Hispanic) share compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | 0.31 |
| Arkansas | 75 | 0.08 |
| California | 58 | 0.53 |
| Colorado | 64 | 0.54 |
| Florida | 67 | 0.78 |
| Georgia | 159 | 0.29 |
| Idaho | 44 | 0.58 |
| Illinois | 102 | 0.73 |
| Indiana | 92 | 0.66 |
| Iowa | 99 | 0.54 |
| Kansas | 105 | 0.77 |
| Kentucky | 120 | 0.69 |
| Louisiana | 64 | 0.30 |
| Michigan | 83 | 0.68 |
| Minnesota | 87 | 0.69 |
| Mississippi | 82 | -0.22 |
| Missouri | 115 | 0.78 |
| Montana | 56 | 0.56 |
| Nebraska | 93 | 0.82 |
| New Mexico | 33 | 0.46 |
| New York | 62 | 0.57 |
| North Carolina | 100 | 0.49 |
| North Dakota | 53 | 0.40 |
| Ohio | 88 | 0.55 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | 0.72 |
| Oregon | 36 | 0.71 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 0.88 |
| South Carolina | 46 | 0.13 |
| South Dakota | 65 | 0.28 |
| Tennessee | 95 | 0.71 |
| Texas | 254 | 0.51 |
| Virginia | 133 | 0.52 |
| Washington | 39 | 0.57 |
| West Virginia | 55 | 0.80 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 0.41 |
American Indian and Alaska Native, not Hispanic
Across 1,251 counties there is almost no straight-line relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.06): the average margin is Rep. +22.6 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 0.1%) and Rep. +32.7 in the third with the highest (over 0.7%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is almost no straight-line relationship (r = -0.07). Across 257 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a weak relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.13).
Where the American Indian and Alaska Native (not Hispanic) share is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The American Indian and Alaska Native (not Hispanic) share compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The American Indian and Alaska Native (not Hispanic) share compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | -0.24 |
| Arkansas | 75 | -0.26 |
| California | 58 | 0.03 |
| Colorado | 64 | -0.07 |
| Florida | 67 | -0.31 |
| Georgia | 159 | 0.37 |
| Idaho | 44 | -0.31 |
| Illinois | 102 | 0.48 |
| Indiana | 92 | 0.32 |
| Iowa | 99 | 0.08 |
| Kansas | 105 | -0.17 |
| Kentucky | 120 | 0.12 |
| Louisiana | 64 | -0.45 |
| Michigan | 83 | -0.19 |
| Minnesota | 87 | 0.07 |
| Mississippi | 82 | -0.22 |
| Missouri | 115 | -0.33 |
| Montana | 56 | 0.44 |
| Nebraska | 93 | 0.34 |
| New Mexico | 33 | 0.28 |
| New York | 62 | -0.14 |
| North Carolina | 100 | -0.10 |
| North Dakota | 53 | 0.79 |
| Ohio | 88 | 0.40 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | 0.05 |
| Oregon | 36 | -0.23 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 0.34 |
| South Carolina | 46 | 0.16 |
| South Dakota | 65 | 0.65 |
| Tennessee | 95 | 0.26 |
| Texas | 254 | -0.01 |
| Virginia | 133 | 0.04 |
| Washington | 39 | -0.26 |
| West Virginia | 55 | – |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 0.51 |
Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, not Hispanic
Across 1,796 counties there is a weak relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.14): the average margin is Rep. +42.1 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 0.0%) and Rep. +11.9 in the third with the highest (over 0.0%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is almost no straight-line relationship (r = -0.07). Across 141 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a weak relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.14).
Where the Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (not Hispanic) share is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (not Hispanic) share compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander (not Hispanic) share compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | 0.06 |
| Arkansas | 75 | 0.03 |
| California | 58 | 0.18 |
| Colorado | 64 | 0.37 |
| Florida | 67 | 0.36 |
| Georgia | 159 | 0.26 |
| Idaho | 44 | 0.37 |
| Illinois | 102 | 0.27 |
| Indiana | 92 | 0.46 |
| Iowa | 99 | 0.23 |
| Kansas | 105 | 0.44 |
| Kentucky | 120 | 0.31 |
| Louisiana | 64 | -0.22 |
| Michigan | 83 | 0.17 |
| Minnesota | 87 | -0.08 |
| Mississippi | 82 | – |
| Missouri | 115 | 0.04 |
| Montana | 56 | 0.06 |
| Nebraska | 93 | – |
| New Mexico | 33 | 0.49 |
| New York | 62 | 0.14 |
| North Carolina | 100 | 0.16 |
| North Dakota | 53 | 0.10 |
| Ohio | 88 | 0.28 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | 0.13 |
| Oregon | 36 | 0.28 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 0.04 |
| South Carolina | 46 | -0.07 |
| South Dakota | 65 | – |
| Tennessee | 95 | 0.59 |
| Texas | 254 | 0.27 |
| Virginia | 133 | 0.11 |
| Washington | 39 | 0.48 |
| West Virginia | 55 | – |
| Wisconsin | 72 | – |
Two or more races or another race, not Hispanic
Across 2,747 counties there is a weak relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.16): the average margin is Rep. +42.9 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 3.4%) and Rep. +25.4 in the third with the highest (over 4.7%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is almost no straight-line relationship (r = 0.09). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a weak relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.21).
Where the share of two or more races or another race (not Hispanic) is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The share of two or more races or another race (not Hispanic) compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The share of two or more races or another race (not Hispanic) compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | -0.07 |
| Arkansas | 75 | -0.08 |
| California | 58 | 0.14 |
| Colorado | 64 | 0.23 |
| Florida | 67 | -0.10 |
| Georgia | 159 | 0.25 |
| Idaho | 44 | 0.08 |
| Illinois | 102 | 0.37 |
| Indiana | 92 | 0.48 |
| Iowa | 99 | 0.37 |
| Kansas | 105 | 0.34 |
| Kentucky | 120 | 0.41 |
| Louisiana | 64 | -0.03 |
| Michigan | 83 | 0.23 |
| Minnesota | 87 | 0.18 |
| Mississippi | 82 | -0.42 |
| Missouri | 115 | 0.15 |
| Montana | 56 | 0.17 |
| Nebraska | 93 | 0.36 |
| New Mexico | 33 | -0.09 |
| New York | 62 | 0.40 |
| North Carolina | 100 | 0.30 |
| North Dakota | 53 | -0.06 |
| Ohio | 88 | 0.66 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | 0.21 |
| Oregon | 36 | -0.00 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 0.52 |
| South Carolina | 46 | -0.36 |
| South Dakota | 65 | -0.17 |
| Tennessee | 95 | 0.19 |
| Texas | 254 | -0.22 |
| Virginia | 133 | 0.49 |
| Washington | 39 | 0.39 |
| West Virginia | 55 | 0.30 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 0.27 |
D. Education and income
Adults 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher
Across 3,098 counties there is a strong relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.56): the average margin is Rep. +46.7 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 19.1%) and Rep. +15.0 in the third with the highest (over 26.2%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = 0.16). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a strong relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.53).
Where the share of adults with a bachelor's degree is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The share of adults with a bachelor's degree compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The share of adults with a bachelor's degree compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | 0.08 |
| Arkansas | 75 | 0.25 |
| California | 58 | 0.81 |
| Colorado | 64 | 0.80 |
| Florida | 67 | 0.69 |
| Georgia | 159 | 0.27 |
| Idaho | 44 | 0.73 |
| Illinois | 102 | 0.75 |
| Indiana | 92 | 0.75 |
| Iowa | 99 | 0.70 |
| Kansas | 105 | 0.50 |
| Kentucky | 120 | 0.81 |
| Louisiana | 64 | 0.36 |
| Michigan | 83 | 0.78 |
| Minnesota | 87 | 0.79 |
| Mississippi | 82 | -0.04 |
| Missouri | 115 | 0.81 |
| Montana | 56 | 0.37 |
| Nebraska | 93 | 0.32 |
| New Mexico | 33 | 0.54 |
| New York | 62 | 0.76 |
| North Carolina | 100 | 0.43 |
| North Dakota | 53 | 0.06 |
| Ohio | 88 | 0.74 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | 0.46 |
| Oregon | 36 | 0.82 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | 0.82 |
| South Carolina | 46 | -0.15 |
| South Dakota | 65 | -0.06 |
| Tennessee | 95 | 0.67 |
| Texas | 254 | 0.30 |
| Virginia | 133 | 0.63 |
| Washington | 39 | 0.80 |
| West Virginia | 55 | 0.86 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 0.51 |
People below the poverty line
Across 3,034 counties there is almost no straight-line relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.03): the average margin is Rep. +31.1 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 11.3%) and Rep. +35.1 in the third with the highest (over 16.0%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a moderate relationship (r = -0.33). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is almost no straight-line relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.10).
Where the share below the poverty line is highest: the top fifth of counties and how they voted in 2024
The fifth of counties with the highest figure keep their 2024 vote colours; all other counties fade.
The share below the poverty line compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The share below the poverty line compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Within each state (35 states with 30 or more counties)
| State | Counties | r with 2024 margin |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67 | 0.66 |
| Arkansas | 75 | 0.40 |
| California | 58 | -0.42 |
| Colorado | 64 | -0.33 |
| Florida | 67 | -0.10 |
| Georgia | 159 | 0.17 |
| Idaho | 44 | -0.19 |
| Illinois | 102 | -0.05 |
| Indiana | 92 | 0.17 |
| Iowa | 99 | 0.17 |
| Kansas | 105 | 0.20 |
| Kentucky | 120 | -0.52 |
| Louisiana | 64 | 0.27 |
| Michigan | 83 | -0.06 |
| Minnesota | 87 | -0.03 |
| Mississippi | 82 | 0.76 |
| Missouri | 115 | -0.21 |
| Montana | 56 | 0.26 |
| Nebraska | 93 | 0.02 |
| New Mexico | 33 | -0.13 |
| New York | 62 | 0.23 |
| North Carolina | 100 | 0.26 |
| North Dakota | 53 | 0.63 |
| Ohio | 88 | 0.03 |
| Oklahoma | 77 | -0.06 |
| Oregon | 36 | -0.32 |
| Pennsylvania | 67 | -0.03 |
| South Carolina | 46 | 0.43 |
| South Dakota | 65 | 0.64 |
| Tennessee | 95 | -0.25 |
| Texas | 254 | 0.31 |
| Virginia | 133 | -0.03 |
| Washington | 39 | -0.33 |
| West Virginia | 55 | -0.30 |
| Wisconsin | 72 | 0.27 |
Median household income
Across 3,098 counties there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.31): the average margin is Rep. +40.9 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under $59,783) and Rep. +23.0 in the third with the highest (over $71,724). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = 0.16). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.31).
The median household income compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The median household income compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Unemployment rate
Across 2,433 counties there is a weak relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.19): the average margin is Rep. +36.6 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 4.0%) and Rep. +25.2 in the third with the highest (over 5.4%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = -0.27). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.43).
The unemployment rate compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The unemployment rate compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
D. Work and commuting
Average travel time to work
Across 3,105 counties there is almost no straight-line relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.03): the average margin is Rep. +36.5 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 21.9 min) and Rep. +36.3 in the third with the highest (over 26.5 min). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = -0.19). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.42).
The average travel time to work compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The average travel time to work compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Workers with a trip to work of 45 minutes or more
Across 2,982 counties there is almost no straight-line relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = -0.09): the average margin is Rep. +30.2 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 11.7%) and Rep. +37.6 in the third with the highest (over 18.4%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = -0.17). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.34).
The share with a trip to work of 45 minutes or more compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The share with a trip to work of 45 minutes or more compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Workers commuting by public transit
Across 1,280 counties there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.39): the average margin is Rep. +51.1 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 0.0%) and Dem. +7.6 in the third with the highest (over 0.5%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = -0.25). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.44).
The share commuting by public transit compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The share commuting by public transit compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Workers working from home
Across 2,776 counties there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.46): the average margin is Rep. +46.6 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 7.5%) and Rep. +16.1 in the third with the highest (over 11.1%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = 0.15). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a strong relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.57).
The share working from home compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The share working from home compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
D. Housing and internet
Renter households paying 30%+ of income on rent
Across 2,880 counties there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.37): the average margin is Rep. +47.1 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 41.5%) and Rep. +19.3 in the third with the highest (over 48.7%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = -0.17). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.45).
The share of renters paying 30% or more of income on rent compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The share of renters paying 30% or more of income on rent compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Owner households paying 30%+ of income on housing
Across 3,019 counties there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.44): the average margin is Rep. +47.1 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 17.1%) and Rep. +19.0 in the third with the highest (over 20.4%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = -0.23). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a strong relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.56).
The share of owners paying 30% or more of income on housing compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The share of owners paying 30% or more of income on housing compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Households with broadband internet
Across 3,105 counties there is a weak relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.23): the average margin is Rep. +44.7 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 84.7%) and Rep. +19.6 in the third with the highest (over 89.1%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a weak relationship (r = 0.18). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.37).
The share of households with broadband compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
The share of households with broadband compared with the change in margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: the margin moved toward the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Limits of this baseline
The Census figures lag. They are American Community Survey 5-year estimates for 2020 to 2024, an average over five years. A rapid change in a county over the last year or two, such as a sudden population influx or an economic downturn, may not show yet. We will add, as dated addenda, figures that are more recent: the Census Bureau's 1-year estimates for 2025 (every congressional district and every county of 65,000 people or more), county population estimates for July 2025, and monthly county unemployment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each figure will state the period it covers.
Campaign money and polls are not here yet. Federal Election Commission filings made before the vote will be added as a dated snapshot. Polls appear only where the publisher allows reuse; none are included so far, and the final edition will say so if that does not change.
Anything added to this report after it was first published is marked with the date it was added, and the original text stays as it was.
E. Polls
No polls whose publishers allow reuse have been added yet. If none become available, the final edition will say so.
F. Campaign money
Federal Election Commission figures for 2026 candidates are being added; they will be reported for every candidate with a filing.
Update, November 1, 2026: the FEC figures are now in. Totals by party, how many races each party's candidates out-raised, and maps for the Senate and the House are in the Addendum tab; every candidate's raised, spent and cash on hand is in each state's and district's panel in the interactive study.
Data and sources
The tables on this page as CSV: measures, turnout by state, county change 2020 to 2024. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-year estimates (via the Census API). U.S. Census Bureau, 2024 cartographic boundary files and 2026 TIGER/Line congressional districts. MIT Election Data and Science Lab: U.S. House 1976-2024, U.S. Senate 1976-2024, County Presidential Returns 2000-2024 (CC0). U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, November 2024 Voting and Registration Supplement (P20-587): reported voting by group. Federal Election Commission: 2025-2026 candidate summary file (weball26), campaign committee totals as reported. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Local Area Unemployment Statistics, counties; Census Bureau: population estimates, Vintage 2025.
Built 2026-10-31 by formula from the case study's published data. Free to reuse with credit (CC BY 4.0).
Addendum
Material added after this report was first published on October 31, 2026, listed by the date it was added, oldest first. The original sections are unchanged.
Added November 1, 2026: more recent figures, weighting, uncertainty and campaign money
Added November 1, 2026, after this report was first published. The sections above are unchanged. The Census figures above are 2020 to 2024 averages, so recent change in a place may not show in them; these figures are more recent. They were all published before the vote.
Unemployment rate, September 2026 (BLS, preliminary)
Across 3,106 counties there is a weak relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = 0.16): the average margin is Rep. +41.1 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under 3.3%) and Rep. +28.8 in the third with the highest (over 4.1%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is a moderate relationship (r = -0.35). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a moderate relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = 0.36).
Unemployment rate, September 2026 (BLS, preliminary) compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Change in unemployment rate, Sep 2025 to Sep 2026 (points, BLS)
Across 3,106 counties there is almost no straight-line relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = -0.02): the average margin is Rep. +32.5 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under -0.4) and Rep. +32.3 in the third with the highest (over 0.1). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is almost no straight-line relationship (r = 0.05). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is almost no straight-line relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.01).
Population change, July 2024 to July 2025 (Census estimates)
Across 3,106 counties there is almost no straight-line relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = -0.00): the average margin is Rep. +37.0 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under -0.1%) and Rep. +37.3 in the third with the highest (over 0.5%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is almost no straight-line relationship (r = 0.07). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a weak relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.20).
Population change, July 2024 to July 2025 (Census estimates) compared with the 2024 presidential margin
Each dot is a county with a reliable estimate. Higher: margin further toward the Democratic candidate; lower: toward the Republican candidate. Dashed line: straight-line trend.
Population change, April 2020 to July 2025 (Census estimates)
Across 3,106 counties there is almost no straight-line relationship with the 2024 presidential margin (r = -0.03): the average margin is Rep. +35.5 in the third of counties with the lowest figure (under -0.7%) and Rep. +36.6 in the third with the highest (over 2.9%). With the change from 2020 to 2024 there is almost no straight-line relationship (r = 0.08). Across 259 House districts with unchanged lines and a contested 2024 race, there is a weak relationship with the 2024 House margin (r = -0.28).
Weighted by residents, and the uncertainty of each pattern
Above, every county counts once, so a county of 2,000 people weighs as much as one of several million. Here each correlation with the 2024 presidential margin is also shown with every county weighted by its population, and with a 95% range for the unweighted figure. The largest differences between the two are for Population change, April 2020 to July 2025 (Census estimates) (-0.03 unweighted, -0.33 weighted); Population change, July 2024 to July 2025 (Census estimates) (-0.00 unweighted, -0.23 weighted); Workers with a trip to work of 45 minutes or more (-0.09 unweighted, 0.12 weighted).
| Measure | Counties | r, each county once | 95% range | r, weighted by population |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 3,104 | 0.35 | 0.32 to 0.38 | 0.38 |
| Citizens of voting age | 3,104 | 0.36 | 0.33 to 0.39 | 0.39 |
| People aged 65 and over | 3,104 | -0.20 | -0.23 to -0.16 | -0.33 |
| People aged 18 to 29 | 3,067 | 0.31 | 0.28 to 0.34 | 0.30 |
| White, not Hispanic | 3,104 | -0.49 | -0.52 to -0.47 | -0.57 |
| Black, not Hispanic | 2,341 | 0.42 | 0.38 to 0.45 | 0.37 |
| Hispanic or Latino (any race) | 2,860 | 0.10 | 0.06 to 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Asian, not Hispanic | 1,989 | 0.46 | 0.43 to 0.50 | 0.50 |
| American Indian and Alaska Native, not Hispanic | 1,251 | 0.06 | 0.01 to 0.12 | -0.11 |
| Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, not Hispanic | 1,796 | 0.14 | 0.09 to 0.18 | 0.07 |
| Two or more races or another race, not Hispanic | 2,747 | 0.16 | 0.12 to 0.19 | 0.22 |
| Adults 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher | 3,098 | 0.56 | 0.54 to 0.58 | 0.65 |
| People below the poverty line | 3,034 | 0.03 | -0.01 to 0.06 | -0.02 |
| Unemployment rate | 2,433 | 0.19 | 0.15 to 0.23 | 0.33 |
| Workers with a trip to work of 45 minutes or more | 2,982 | -0.09 | -0.13 to -0.06 | 0.12 |
| Workers commuting by public transit | 1,280 | 0.39 | 0.34 to 0.44 | 0.41 |
| Workers working from home | 2,776 | 0.46 | 0.43 to 0.49 | 0.65 |
| Households with broadband internet | 3,105 | 0.23 | 0.20 to 0.26 | 0.43 |
| Renter households paying 30%+ of income on rent | 2,880 | 0.37 | 0.34 to 0.40 | 0.34 |
| Owner households paying 30%+ of income on housing | 3,019 | 0.44 | 0.41 to 0.47 | 0.48 |
| Median household income | 3,098 | 0.31 | 0.28 to 0.34 | 0.39 |
| Median age | 3,105 | -0.19 | -0.23 to -0.16 | -0.28 |
| Average travel time to work | 3,105 | 0.03 | -0.01 to 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Unemployment rate, September 2026 (BLS, preliminary) | 3,106 | 0.16 | 0.13 to 0.20 | 0.16 |
| Change in unemployment rate, Sep 2025 to Sep 2026 (points, BLS) | 3,106 | -0.02 | -0.05 to 0.02 | -0.12 |
| Population change, July 2024 to July 2025 (Census estimates) | 3,106 | -0.00 | -0.04 to 0.03 | -0.23 |
| Population change, April 2020 to July 2025 (Census estimates) | 3,106 | -0.03 | -0.07 to 0.00 | -0.33 |
The 95% range uses Fisher's z, treating counties as a sample; counties are not independent of one another, so read it as a guide to how settled a pattern is, not a test. The weighted figure counts each resident equally rather than each county.
Campaign money reported to the FEC
In the 35 U.S. Senate races on the 2026 ballot, candidates' campaign committees reported raising $1,425 million in total (Democratic candidates $909 million, Republican candidates $468 million, others $47 million). For the U.S. House, $2,578 million in total (Democratic $1,407 million, Republican $1,135 million, others $36 million). These totals include candidates who did not reach the ballot, run through each candidate's latest report (the latest is 2026-10-31), and leave out money spent by parties and outside groups. Each race's figures, candidate by candidate, are in the interactive study.
Democratic candidates raised more than Republican candidates in 20 of the 35 Senate races and in 237 of 436 House districts with money reported; Republican candidates raised more in 15 Senate races and 199 House districts.
Campaign money 2026, U.S. Senate, by state: which party's candidates raised more
Each state with a 2026 Senate race is coloured by the party whose candidates reported raising more; darker for a larger share of the money. Striped: no Senate election in 2026.
Campaign money 2026, U.S. House, by district: which party's candidates raised more
Each district is coloured by the party whose House candidates reported raising more; darker for a larger share of the money.